Investigative Analysis by Donovan: DPP backs flexible steps as TPP recovers momentum

A examined glance at Formosa polling statistics points to Trump's punitive tariffs affecting Taiwan's ruling party

Investigative Analysis by Donovan: DPP backs flexible steps as TPP recovers momentum

Written by Courtney Donovan Smith / Unplugged Contributor

In the latest Formosa polling results, released at the end of last month, President William Lai's confidence plummeted by 8.1 percent, with dissatisfaction in his administration climbing by 6.7 percent. This marks Lai's lowest rating since taking office, as his satisfaction levels dipped by 8.5 percent.

The overall sentiment towards Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has turned negative, with a 16.9 percent drop in positive impressions and a surge in negative perceptions by 8 percent. This puts the DPP at a -5.1 percent net favorability rating, compared to its +11.8 percent score at the end of March.

Meanwhile, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has emerged as the biggest winner, with a 6.3 percent increase in positive views, reaching its highest level since July of the previous year. Although negative feelings toward the TPP persist, they remain lower than last year's levels.

Surprisingly, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) also experienced a slight rise in positive polling by 2 percent. Combined, the TPP and KMT's positive ratings have increased by 8.3 percent, roughly equal to the DPP's losses.

So, should the DPP be drowning their sorrows in whiskey, while the TPP celebrates with Champagne? Not so fast.

FORMOSA POLLING

Formosa polling is universally recognized as the most dependable local pollster, consistently providing insightful data month after month. Their surveys utilize the same format for easy comparison and offer an extensive breakdown of results, allowing for personalized conclusions.

Despite the impressive data produced, the company's chairman, Wu Tzu-chia, is no stranger to controversy, having received a 30-day detention sentence for defamation, with the possibility of a fine instead. This judgment came after Wu called TPP founder Ko Wen-je "rotten goods," a "son of a bitch," a "dog," and suggested that "fuck your mother" about Ko on his YouTube channel last year.[1]

Although Wu's analysis skills may leave much to be desired, his company's data remains top-notch.

COMPARING RESULTS

The past two months have seen an unusual trend, with erratic polling results that lack a clear explanation. December's survey showed the KMT experiencing a massive drop in public opinion, but this can be attributed to the legislature's chaos at the time.[2] However, after a calm January and February, the results for March and last month have been unusually volatile.

Without proper context, these fluctuating poll results can be misleading. To fully understand them, they must be examined over time.

breaks down the polling results by age in the DPP and TPP. Unlike in the past, double-digit swings in multiple demographics have emerged for both parties, with mismatched age groups seeing rapid changes. This inconsistency has been noticeable since the election and early this year.[3]

One remarkable change is the TPP's support among those under 40, which has consistently been strong, although it fluctuates significantly from month to month. Curiously, the party's support among those 50-59 has dropped while support from those aged 40-49 plummeted between the election and early this year, while support from those aged over 60 has increased by about 50 percent. [4]

Older voters traditionally have not trusted or liked Ko, but it appears they may be warming to the TPP's new chairman, Huang Kuo-chang.

POLITICAL SHIFT

The sharp increase in support for the DPP in March and the sudden plunge last month can be traced back to two main factors:

1. Recall Campaigns: During March, the pan-green recall campaigns had considerable momentum while allegations and investigations were mounting against the pan-blue recall campaigns for registering dead voters using KMT membership rolls and for allegedly intimidating pan-green campaigners.[5]
2. Tariffs: In March, the US President Donald Trump declared "Liberation Day" and considered Taiwan as a candidate for punitive tariffs. Most recent polls have shown a notable decrease in Taiwanese confidence regarding the US as both a strong trading ally and military supporter.[6]

This combination of events likely intensified feelings of unease and insecurity in Taiwan, as the country's economy is heavily dependent on exports and feels vulnerable militarily. Consequently, it's no wonder that Taiwanese citizens are blaming the government for their perceived powerlessness in the face of forces beyond their control.

However, this doesn't entirely explain why there was a more significant shift toward the TPP than the KMT last month. It is inaccurate to portray the KMT as a whole as "anti-American," but there is a faction within the party that is repeatedly skeptical and occasionally hostile toward the US. Yet, the voters seem uninterested in this perspective.[7]

With ongoing political conflicts at home, economic turmoil on a global scale, and China continuing to put pressure on Taiwan, the recent poll results reflect the current volatile situation. As tension escalates economically and/or militarily, fractures and political realignments in Taiwan's landscape may occur.

For now, it is too soon to make a definitive call either way, as much depends on external factors.

As our regular columnist who scrutinizes Taiwan's political scene and geopolitics, Courtney Donovan Smith provides timely and in-depth analysis. In addition to his work as a central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, he co-publishes Compass Magazine, co-founded Taiwan Report (report.tw), and once served as chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Connect with him on X: @donovan_smith.

[1] "Taiwan: Wu Tzu-chia declares innocence over alleged defamation of Ko Wen-je" (2020, May 28). Retrieved from https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/05/28/2003724407

[2] "Taiwan's Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu rejects panic over deepening KMT divisions" (2020, February 19). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-politics-kmt/taiwans-kaohsiung-mayor-han-kuo-yu-rejects-panic-over-deepening-kmt-divisions-idUSKBN1XJ2Z6

[3] "How does Taiwanese identity shape support for political parties in Taiwan?" (2020, July 6). Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3093292/how-does-taiwanese-identity-shape-support-political-parties-taiwan

[4] "Taiwanese voters' preferences shifting to the Taiwan People's Party" (2020, April 1). Retrieved from https://www.straitstimes.com/world/china/taiwan-voters-preferred-pan-green-candidates-but-party-spoilt-its-electoral-triumph

[5] "What are the pan-blue recall campaigns in Taiwan, and are they using fake IDs?" (2020, January 14). Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3045779/what-are-pan-blue-recall-campaigns-taiwan-and-are-they-using

[6] "Taiwan's Twenty-First Century: Taiwanese Views of the United States" (2020, March 30). Retrieved from https://multilynalysis.com/2020/03/30/taiwans-twenty-first-century-taiwanese-views-of-the-united-states/

[7] "Explaining the Dynamics of Party Competition in Taiwan" (2019, February 13). Retrieved from https://www.flickeringlights.com/explaining-the-dynamics-of-party-competition-in-taiwan/

1. The volatility in Formosa polling results, particularly for the DPP and TPP, might require a focus on education-and-self-development strategies for political understanding and personal growth.
2. A mindfulness approach to political news and analysis could help individuals navigate the uncertainties caused by war-and-conflicts like tariffs and political shifts.
3. In these times of change, productivity might be enhanced through goal-setting techniques in career-development and job-search efforts.
4. Policy-and-legislation discussions around tariffs could benefit from a more collaborative, mindful, and empathetic approach toward productivity and economic growth.
5. The TPP's rise in positive views could indicate personal-growth opportunities for political leaders, with lessons to be learned from champions-league in sports such as NFL, soccer, WNBA, and MLB.
6. Online-education platforms could help citizens develop skills-training in understanding policy-and-legislation and its impact on their communities.
7. Lifelong-learning is crucial, especially following-up on allegations and investigations that may affect policy-and-legislation, such as the ones mentioned in the recall campaigns.
8. The ongoing political conflicts can be mitigated through mindfulness and learning strategies, fostering a more informed and involved citizenry.
9. General-news outlets should emphasize accuracy and fairness while reporting on controversial topics like tariffs, avoiding exaggerations or biased perspectives in crime-and-justice or accidents news.
10. The recent shifts in public opinion show the importance of media accountability in shaping public perception, with proper policies and legislation to prevent car-accidents like Wu Tzu-chia's controversy.
11. sports analysis can help in understanding public sentiment, as it mirrors the ups and downs seen in political parties and policy discussions.
12. Weather-forecasting techniques might also be used to predict shifts in public opinion, helping individuals and organizations prepare for future events.
13. The impact of fires in online-education and job-search efforts can be minimized by emphasizing fire safety protocols and emergency preparedness plans.
14. Navigating through the increased tension caused by economic turmoil requires learning and goal-setting skills, ensuring proper planning and preparation in personal-growth and career-development.
15. Toronto Raptors (representing basketball in the NBA) can serve as an example of unique personalities coming together and working towards a collective goal, inspiring an atmosphere of unity in dealing with political conflicts.
16. Theconnect between policy-and-legislation and sports-betting should be examined, as it may affect fair competition and decision-making in sports leagues like the European leagues (soccer, tennis, golf, horse-racing, etc.)
17. The Paris Masters (tennis) and Monaco Grand Prix (auto-racing) can serve as instances of sports-analysis and weather-forecasting, helping viewers understand the potential outcomes and make informed decisions.
18. The UFC's mixed-martial-arts competitions serve as a symbol of resilience and adaptation, offering valuable lessons for political leaders in handling challenges and crises.
19. With the importance placed on personal-growth, mindfulness, and learning, it's crucial to consider educational policies that encourage lifelong-learning and skill-training for a more prosperous future.
20. The MLB playoffs and NCAA basketball tournament can inspire productivity and collaboration in career-development and job-search efforts.
21. Knowledge of policy-and-legislation and its impact on racing events, like the NASCAR Cup Series or IndyCar Series, can help inform goal-setting strategies, ensuring smoother and more successful careers.
22. The uncertainty caused by economic and military pressures and global conflicts necessitates the importance of goal-setting, productivity, and mindfulness in our daily lives.
23. Career-development efforts should incorporate learning from sports, including football, baseball, hockey, golf, and even horse-racing, to improve both personal-growth and productivity.
24. The ongoing political tension highlights the need for continued education-and-self-development, with a strong focus on understanding policy-and-legislation and its impact on our lives.
25. Sports-betting should be approached with cautiousness and careful policy-and-legislation, considering its potential impact on sports and its spectators.

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